Which is so close to being 38% that I’m hereby declaring that it is 38%.
Now, you may say that I was 62.5% wrong, but “wrong” is such a strong word; it conjures up subconscious attachments to right/wrong in a moral sense. So while you might be tempted to label my predictions for the women’s quarterfinals in the 2010 US Open as “mostly wrong” (or more accurately, 5 out of 8 wrong), I prefer to characterize my predictions in terms of their relative accuracy: 3 out of 8 were correct. My glass is also half-full.
- Kim Clijsters = Good
- Victoria Azarenka
- Svetlana Kuznetsova
- Maria Sharapova
- Caroline Wozniacki = Good
- Agnieszka Radwanska
- Samantha Stosur = Good
- Li Na
I’ll agree that 3/8 isn’t spectacular. But remember, these predictions were made before the draw was posted, and as such, some of the quarterfinal predictions were impossible. For example, Sharapova & Wozniacki met in the round of 16; there was no way they could both advance to the QF. Which is unfortunate, because Sharapova played a pretty solid match. Tough draw for her.
Also, these predictions were made before Tencap allowed the average Joe (or Robert, for that matter) to do a straight-up comparison of the top players. How, you ask? Here’s how:
Rule of Thumb (“How do players improve their Tencap ratings?“)
Every 2 points difference in ratings is equal to 1 game difference in each set.
So for the Wozniacki (Tencap = 2) vs Cibulkova (Tencap = 9) match, we have a relative difference of 7 rating points. Wozniacki has been to the finals before, Cibulkova has not, so I’m taking the liberty of extending the difference to 8 ratings points between them. 8 points should translate into 4 games per set. My prediction, now with more data behind it is Wozniacki in straight sets: 6-2, 6-2. Or alternatively, 12 games for Wozniacki to 4 (at best) from Cibulkova.
It’s tempting to root for the underdog, but I suspect Cibulkova has a collision course for a beatdown in Wednesday’s QF match with Wozniacki.