I was 37.5% Correct


Which is so close to being 38% that I’m hereby declaring that it is 38%.

Now, you may say that I was 62.5% wrong, but “wrong” is such a strong word; it conjures up subconscious attachments to right/wrong in a moral sense.  So while you might be tempted to label my predictions for the women’s quarterfinals in the 2010 US Open as “mostly wrong” (or more accurately, 5 out of 8 wrong), I prefer to characterize my predictions in terms of their relative accuracy: 3 out of 8 were correct.  My glass is also half-full.

2010 US Open – Women’s Quarter-Finals Predictions

  1. Kim Clijsters = Good
  2. Victoria Azarenka
  3. Svetlana Kuznetsova
  4. Maria Sharapova
  5. Caroline Wozniacki = Good
  6. Agnieszka Radwanska
  7. Samantha Stosur = Good
  8. Li Na

I’ll agree that 3/8 isn’t spectacular. But remember, these predictions were made before the draw was posted, and as such, some of the quarterfinal predictions were impossible. For example, Sharapova & Wozniacki met in the round of 16; there was no way they could both advance to the QF. Which is unfortunate, because Sharapova played a pretty solid match. Tough draw for her.

Also, these predictions were made before Tencap allowed the average Joe (or Robert, for that matter) to do a straight-up comparison of the top players.  How, you ask?  Here’s how:

Rule of Thumb (“How do players improve their Tencap ratings?“)
Every 2 points difference in ratings is equal to 1 game difference in each set.

So for the Wozniacki (Tencap = 2) vs Cibulkova (Tencap = 9) match, we have a relative difference of 7 rating points.  Wozniacki has been to the finals before, Cibulkova has not, so I’m taking the liberty of extending the difference to 8 ratings points between them.  8 points should translate into 4 games per set.  My prediction, now with more data behind it is Wozniacki in straight sets: 6-2, 6-2.  Or alternatively, 12 games for Wozniacki to 4 (at best) from Cibulkova.

It’s tempting to root for the underdog, but I suspect Cibulkova has a collision course for a beatdown in Wednesday’s QF match with Wozniacki.

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